Monthly Market Commentary – February 2023

Whilst inflation continues its downward trend, hopes for easy monetary policy have begun to fade. The strength of developed economies and, in particular, the US jobs market has led to a “higher for longer” mantra, so whilst the Federal Reserve might not look to hike rates much more, they are also unlikely to cut rates soon either, certainly not while inflation persists at high levels and potential for inflation remains high. It should be noted that much of the recent revival in risk sentiment was led by China’s “reopening”, and the country has been in a quiet period insofar as economic reporting goes (data for January and February is expected in March).

The waning risk sentiment amidst higher interest rates hurt Real Assets, although these have been year-to-date outperformers, the worst performance in February was seen in commodity-exposed equity regions and sectors. Follow the link below for more detail on events that transpired in the month.

LOCAL DRIVERS
Electricity Crisis

As the reality of continuous load shedding dawns on most South Africans Calib Cassim (current Eskom CFO) takes on the interim role of CEO following Andre de Ruyter’s resignation. The SA Reserve Bank estimated a daily cost of R900m at these advanced stages of load shedding.

Further changes include Cyril Ramaphosa declaring a National State of Disaster, a still-to-be-named Ministry of Energy, and an announcement on the “Eskom Debt Plan” which will see R254bn (60% of SA GDP, 2021) linked to servicing Eskom’s debt, with attached conditions.
It is unclear how these changes will remedy the current situation, lifting the cap on SA’s economic growth.

National Budget

The National Budget was presented towards the end of February and was largely positive as tax collections continued to support the budget. Details were revealed around the Eskom debt plan and a further reduction in some key financial ratios amidst fiscal consolidation.

FATF Greylisting

Much of the rand weakness can be attributed to the announcement of South Africa’s addition to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) greylist (alongside Nigeria). This comes following a review last year and despite some progress by the SA government, certain areas remained a concern. Treasury and Government have committed to continue working on the areas of concern, and whilst not expected to change the sovereign credit rating it is likely to make capital flows more onerous.

SA Inflation and Rates

Annualised CPI in January continued to ease from higher levels, printing 6.9% (December 7.2%, November 7.4%). Whilst the SARB will remain cautious of second-round inflationary effects (largely the impact of real wage increases) the primary concerns lie in the rand price of fuel and a continued tight-monetary approach led by the US Federal Reserve.

SA Cabinet Review

Cyril Ramphosa will have the opportunity to revise his current cabinet of ministers (and deputies). A “reshuffle” will be indicative of continued political compromise whilst a cleaner review may indicate some new blood and ideally competency. Key portfolios include the Economic roles as well as the new “Energy Minister”.

Additionally, David Mabuza, the Deputy President, has resigned and it is broadly expected that Paul Mashatile will assume this role in Government as he is now the ANC’s deputy president.

ASSET CLASS TOTAL RETURNS – ZAR
GLOBAL DRIVERS
Inflation Cooling

Inflation in the US and eurozone cooled, strengthening market hopes that central banks can take their foot off the monetary tightening pedal. US inflation hovered at 6.4% in January, but the key metric is US Core PCE which rose to 4.7% in January (4.6% a month earlier).

US Labour Market

A key measure of how healthy the economy is (albeit with a lagged effect) is the US job market, it currently sits at levels last seen more than 50 years ago (3.4% unemployment in January). This roughly translates into higher earning power for employees, and this real wage growth has been a significant contributor to stubbornly high core inflation in the US. If wage pressures continue to ease, the Fed may not need to push rates much higher.

US Debt Ceiling

The US Treasury is mandated by lawmakers to keep debt levels below a certain range, termed the debt-ceiling. Without further approval the treasury will not be allowed to issue new debt beyond the current level. As the US government spending continues unabated, they approach a new fiscal cliff which may have serious ramifications across markets. Should a deal not be passed by Congress then this political stalemate will have a significant liquidity impact on markets and dent confidence further.

China Reopening

The rally markets experienced towards the end of 2022 was largely driven by falling US inflation, lower expected policy rates, and the reopening of the Chinese economy whose lawmakers cast the zero-covid policy aside. This market boost is largely dependent on a growing Chinese economy and renewed consumer confidence, something that cannot be confirmed just yet. Data will only be released in March for January and February. China has the potential to simultaneously boost global growth and dampen certain inflationary effects.

ASSET CLASS TOTAL RETURNS – USD

All information provided courtesy of Portfolio Metrix – adapted and published with permission. No copyright infringement intended.

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